Confidence Interval






The information provided on the site enables the user to calculate confidence intervals for each reported measure.


Confidence intervals can be used to estimate the precision of the calculated rates for an individual hospital. A confidence interval is the range of values, within which an estimated value or rate is likely to fall. A confidence interval is a statistical determination of the degree of certainty associated with an estimated value. As can be seen in the table of estimated values (below), large differences between individual hospitals’ rates may be significant, and small differences between hospitals are usually not significant.


The smaller the sample size, the greater the difference in rates must be order for that difference to be statistically meaningful. Also, as sample size varies between hospitals, it is difficult to precisely compare their rates, without considering the confidence intervals.


Over time, as the quality data base is expanded, a full four quarters of data will be posted for each measure. The number of cases used to determine hospitals' rates will likely increase, thereby increasing the reliability and stability of the rates.


Estimating Confidence Intervals for the Process of Care Measures: Estimated Values for Proportion Data
SAMPLE SIZE OBSERVED RATE
  10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%
<25 -- -- 24.9% 26.6% 27.2% 26.6% 24.9% -- --
25-75 8.3% 11.1% 12.7% 13.6% 13.9% 13.6% 12.7% 11.1% 8.3%
76-125 5.9% 7.8% 9.0% 9.6% 9.8% 9.6% 9.0% 7.8% 5.9%
126-175 4.8% 6.4% 7.3% 7.8% 8.0% 7.8% 7.3% 6.4% 4.8%
176-225 4.2% 5.5% 6.4% 6.8% 6.9% 6.8% 6.4% 5.5% 4.2%
226-275 3.7% 5.0% 5.7% 6.1% 6.2% 6.1% 5.7% 5.0% 3.7%
276+ 2.9% 3.9% 4.5% 4.8% 4.9% 4.8% 4.5% 3.9% 2.9%
Source: CMS/OCSQ/QIG: The values in the table are the approximate amount to add and subtract from the observed rate to estimate a 95 percent confidence interval for the given sample size. (Interpolation between the values in the table is appropriate.) Estimates of an interval in these cells exceed the natural limits for proportions.


Click here to go to the top of this page
23